Agricultural weather: Dry, cold winter – but caution is still required
Winter 2025/2026 brought frost, low temperatures and widespread snowfall in many regions. At first glance, this may suggest that sufficient precipitation has fallen. In reality, however, snow contributes only a small amount of water: 1 cm of snow cover equals approximately 1 mm of precipitation. This becomes clear when looking at the precipitation totals at the site in Schwandorf.
Precipitation totals (December - February): Source: WetterKontor, December - February respectively |
While winter 2023/2024 was significantly wetter, winters 2022/2023 and 2024/2025 were within the average range. The current winter 2025/2026 shows the lowest precipitation levels of recent years and is therefore considerably drier. The drought monitor confirms this trend and warns of regional soil water deficits within the soil profile. Snowfall followed by thawing can create a misleading impression: the soil appears moist on the surface, yet subsoil moisture and the replenishment of soil water reserves are insufficient in many areas.
To gain an overview of soil structure and soil moisture, a cover crop sown in autumn at Sitzenhof was assessed.
On February, the soil beneath the snow cover was frozen to a depth of at least 10 cm. The lowest temperature recorded this winter was −14.4 °C (6 January 2026). In total, 52 frost days and 9 ice days were recorded.
Frost days are defined as days when air temperature drops below 0 °C at least once. Ice days, by contrast, are days when temperatures remain below freezing throughout the entire day. This prolonged cold period supports the formation of a stable frost tilth, but at the same time causes deeper soil layers to thaw only slowly.
Therefore, caution is advised for upcoming field operations: thawing makes the soil surface plastic and sticky, yet it is not sufficiently dry. Premature cultivation passes can cause compaction and negatively affect soil structure in the long term.
For spring operations, this means monitoring soil conditions closely and carrying out tillage only after adequate drying.
A look at cereal stands highlights the benefits of the combination of frost and snow. At temperatures between −10 and −15 °C, a continuous snow cover acted as an insulating layer for oilseed rape and winter wheat, meaning no visible damage was apparent at first glance. The snow layer kept soil temperatures relatively stable and reduced extreme fluctuations, effectively protecting the crops. At the same time, the limited precipitation fell as snow, allowing the insulating effect to remain fully intact.
As temperatures rise following the thaw period, stem elongation begins. If another frost period follows, there is a risk of black frost (frost without protective snow cover). Without snow cover, severe sub-zero temperatures directly affect soil and crops and can particularly damage more developed crop stands.
Once stem elongation begins, plant frost tolerance decreases. Late spring frosts can therefore lead to winterkill damage in oilseed rape and winter cereals.
Due to the low precipitation during the winter months, soil water reserves have likely not been fully replenished. If precipitation comparable to previous years is not reached before the start of the growing season, the new growing season will begin with a deficit.
This is particularly critical on light soils with low water-holding capacity, where drought stress develops sooner and can affect crop development.
To reach an average moisture level, approximately 50 l/m² of precipitation is still missing. Under current weather conditions, it remains to be seen whether we will start spring with values similar to 2023/2024 (around 195 l/m²). Regardless of how weather patterns develop, the tillage strategy must always be adapted to individual site conditions.
